13 January 2010

Investment advice from a poor person--you have been warned

I think I've mentioned previously that I read The Economist. I'm interested in the world of business, but not inclined to dip my toe in it--an annoying pub bar expert, that's me.

You don't have to believe me, but I saw the financial crisis coming. I couldn't understand what these credit derivative swaps and similar rubbish were, nor find a clear explanation of them--and talking them up when you can't explain them sounded warning sirens for me. So with typical bearish enthusiasm, I said. "This can't last." Unfortunately, I was right. And I think it'll happen again.

I think the "rescue" of the world economy was shallow and is festering other problems. In Australia, our houses are over-priced and people are struggling financially. Yet we are among the countries reported as having best survived the crisis.

I don't know what will tip us into financial panic again. Maybe an attack on Iran? Maybe a bank collapse? The insurance industry is murky, too, and faced with the calamities of global warming. Anything could happen.

Anything could happen--there's a SF story in there. Writers are opportunists, too.

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